Inside Spain (21 July-21 September)

Spain to take 17,000 refugees.
Pro-independence camp set to win Catalan election, Madrid moves against tax plan.
Population fast greying and forecast to shrink.
IMF warns of risks to economic recovery.
Ibex companies generate larger share of revenues abroad.
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/wcm/connect/7cf2c48049f1a9dc97149f207baccc4c/120_InsideSpain_ElcanoNewsletter.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=7cf2c48049f1a9dc97149f207baccc4c

Spain’s golden age: global power

HABSBURG Spain in the 16th century was the world’s first global superpower, with an empire stretching east across most of Europe to the Philippines and India and west across the Atlantic to the Americas. It was an age of expansion and cultural efflorescence and ended with Spain’s steep decline from which it never fully recovered.

Robert Goodwin’s new book begins with the arrival in Seville in 1519 of the Santa María, the first ship to reach Europe from the newly conquered coast of Mexico, laden with such riches that “there was no other ballast than gold”, and ends in 1682 with Juan Valdés Leal’s gruesome painting “In Ictu Oculi” (“In the Twinkling of an Eye”), an allegory of death—and for the author a perfect symbol for the “end times” of Spanish imperialism.

Mr Goodwin, a research fellow at University College London, has mined deep in the archives and produced a wealth of wonderfully evocative and offbeat detail that is both scholarly and accessible to the general reader. The most coveted office in the monarchy’s Privy Chamber was Groom of the Stool, who attended on the king’s defecation and looked after the royal chamber pot. The physical closeness naturally led this most intimate of courtiers to become someone in whom much confidence was placed and with whom many royal secrets were shared.

The author’s cast of protagonists during this Counter-Reformation period when costly wars were waged against Protestant heretic enemies, most notably the Dutch, includes the chronically ill mystic St Teresa of Avila, who believed that every time she heard a thunderclap God was communicating with her soul, and Sister María de Ágreda, the closest confidante of Felipe IV, who claimed to be in two places at the same time (evangelising Indians while she was asleep). The Inquisition’s torturers forced a strip of linen down a suspected heretic’s throat, held the victim’s mouth open by an iron plug and poured water slowly, causing a sensation of suffocation. The method was later abandoned in favour of more “merciful” treatment. Waterboarding was a scandal long before it came to the fore in the administration of George W. Bush.

In the most fascinating section, Mr Goodwin explores the paradox of a possible correlation between the artistic and literary splendours of the Golden Age and political decadence. As well as the imperial victories recorded in magnificent paintings, including Diego Velázquez’s “The Surrender of Breda” and Titian’s “Equestrian Portrait of Charles V” (pictured), there were the dark monk paintings of Francisco de Zurbarán, the plays of Lope de Vega, Tirso de Molina and Calderón de la Barca, the poetry of Góngora and the sacred made real in the lifelike images of Christ, carved in wood, for Holy Week processions in Seville, which today are a tourist attraction.

Mr Goodwin cleverly weaves into his own narrative the social observations in “Don Quixote” by Miguel de Cervantes, widely regarded as the father of the modern novel. Don Quixote’s enthusiasm for the heroics of the romances of chivalry mirrors the great exploits of the Spanish in Europe and the New World, whereas his gradual disillusionment in the second part of the book could reflect a sense of decline.

Like Cervantes’s hero, Spain’s elite had become deluded and had lost touch with reality. By the end of the 17th century the empire had become overstretched on almost every front, while the vast quantities of precious metals pouring into Spain caused massive inflation. The fall in the value of these riches led to unpopular increases in taxation and massive borrowing to sustain the empire. The English and the Dutch were taking over; the new spur to globalisation was inter-imperial rivalry.
http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21659690-highly-readable-account-birth-first-global-superpower-global-power

Inside Spain (15 June-20 July)

Mas agrees joint ticket for early election, support for Catalan independence wanes.
King Felipe improves the monarchy’s standing in his first year.
Government upgrades growth yet again, brings forward income tax cuts.
Qatari sheikh acquires 10% of El Corte Inglés for €1bn.

http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/wcm/connect/db6f37004930890598e7d96a5d27331d/119_InsideSpain_ElcanoNewsletter.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=db6f37004930890598e7d96a5d27331d

Turkey’s elections: AKP loses absolute majority, thwarts Erdogan’s bid for executive presidency

Turkey’s Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its absolute parliamentary majority for the first time since sweeping to power in 2002, and with it Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition for greater power by changing the constitution to become an executive president.
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/web/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/commentary-chislett-turkeys-elections-akp-loses-absolute-majority-thwarts-erdogans-bid-for-executive-presidency#.VXWss2Sqqkp

The gap between Spain’s image and the country’s reality

Even before Spain’s crisis and despite some notable political, economic and social achievements, the country’s image abroad and within Spain was out of sync with reality. This situation worsened during the recession, which is now over, but the old stereotypes about Spain as a country of little more than flamenco, bullfights, fiestas and siestas persist.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy promised during his trip to China last year to shorten the time it takes to approve visas for Chinese tourists. Epitomising the stereotypes that have long characterised Spain, the English-language China Daily illustrated its article on visas with a bull being fought by a ‘flamenco dancer’, which it confused with a matador.

The crisis has clearly dented the country’s image. Yet the perception, for many, is the reality.

The massive rise in unemployment, largely as a result of the collapse of the real estate and construction sectors, which generated a disproportionate share of GDP, hogs the headlines and obscures the achievements since the transition to democracy, most of which have not been eroded.

These achievements include multinationals with leading positions in the global economy (the stock of Spanish investment abroad is higher than Italy’s), the world’s ninth largest stock of inward foreign direct investment, the successful absorbing of some 6 million immigrants over the past 20 years (some of them are returning) and the longest life expectancy in the European Union (testament to the creation of a welfare system and the generally healthier diet).

Flamenco, bullfighting and fiestas are fine to promote the tourism industry as it plays a vital role in the economy (generating around 12% of GDP and employing roughly one in every 10 people), particularly at a time of high unemployment. Close to 30% of Japanese respondents in a recent survey spontaneously associated the word ‘Spain’ with bulls and almost 20% with flamenco.

Yet Spain also needs a more ‘serious’ image in order to boost exports and make the country known for other achievements and not just as a fun playground.

A report published by the Spain Image Observatory of the Real Instituto Elcano, based on surveys in the form of questions by the Reputation Institute in 57 countries, compares data on the reality of Spain with that corresponding to how it is perceived abroad. The results show that in some areas there is a significant gap between the image and the reality.

For example, Spain’s participation in peace missions is ranked 18th in the perception ranking and 11th according to data produced by the International Institute for Strategic Studies – a gap of seven places. In foreign direct investment in Spain, the distance is nine places as Spain is ranked 20th and 11th in the respective rankings. By far the largest gap (19 places) is in the sphere of happiness (emotional wellbeing): Spain is ranked 11th by the Reputation Institute and 30th according to the UN’s World Happiness Report which attempts to measure this state with ‘objective’ data.

The big distance in the degree of happiness in Spain as perceived by foreigners and the reality as confirmed by Spaniards reflects the sorry state of the Spanish economy, particularly unemployment, but also the tendency of Spaniards to be much more pessimistic about their country than foreigners (and also much more optimistic when the going is good). Furthermore, while the view of Spain abroad has improved over the last two years, within Spain it has worsened.

Elcano’s report identifies various areas where Spain’s public and private sectors need to concentrate their efforts in order for Spain to be better appreciated abroad. In all of them, the reality is much better than the image abroad and so there is room to improve the perception of Spain. These areas include culture, personal security (Spain is the sixth safest country in the world), foreign direct investment, attractiveness for foreign students, exports and recognised brands.

In only two areas, government effectiveness and lifestyle, is Spain’s image better than the reality.

One problem is that Spain needs to speak with one voice. However, its 17 autonomous regions pull in different directions – one of them, Catalonia, is pushing for independence – and this creates confusion abroad

It is not easy for Spain to change its image and improve the perception of the nation brand. The country is viewed in surveys as ‘hot’ (creative, passionate and not very serious), as opposed to ‘cold’ (efficient, rigorous and serious) like Germany and the UK. The ‘hot’ image benefits the flourishing tourism industry, but not many other parts of the economy, and the way the country is perceived abroad.

Chile was so determined to impress upon the world its ‘coldness’ that it shipped a 60-tonne iceberg to Seville in 1992, and made it the centrepiece of its World’s Fair pavilion.

Spain does not have to go to such extremes, but it needs to be more proactive.